- Key market moving events today
-German IFO business confidence increased slightly to 109.8 vs 109.6 expected and 109.7 previous. Current conditions remained unchanged at 117.4 and sub-index for business expectations rose to 102.7 vs 102.6E and 102.4 previous. Economist from Ifo institute said that German economy is losing some momentum as manufacturing is deteriorating and room for further improvement is tight and slowing growth in the euro zone and countries like India and China, on which Germany depends to buy its exports, is weighing on the business climate for manufacturers. He added that ECB’s low interest rates and crisis measures are hurting Germany.
-Bernanke said at conference that “Further significant improvements in the unemployment rate will likely require a more-rapid expansion of production and demand from consumers and businesses, a process that can be supported by continued accommodative policies,” that was enough to resurrected QE3 speculation. Interesting fact is that National Association for Business Economics released it’s poll results today what showed that majority of the 259 economics professionals polled in survey thought the U.S. central bank’s previous two rounds of asset purchases have been a success, 81% of the group said the Fed shouldn’t launch a third such program this year. My guess is it’s highly unlikely that Bernanke will launch another round of QE this year because economic data has been quite good. Maybe he did it because he wanted to push treasury yields back down.
-US pending home sales fell -0-5% vs 1% expected and 2% on previous month.Reminder that the housing market’s recovery remains uneven. Realtors’ chief economist Lawrence Yun said “The spring home buying season looks bright because of an elevated level of contract offers so far this year and if activity is sustained near present levels, existing-home sales will see their best performance in five years.”
- Market moving events on Tuesday
- German GFK Consumer Sentiment
- Rehn to present OECD economic survey of the EZ
- UK CBI Distributive Trades
-UK Consumer Confidence - Technical look on the markets
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EUR/USD Euro attacked 1.3300 during Asian session and failed. EUR remained resilient despite negative news out of EZ : “Italian PM Monti warned that Spain could reignite the European debt crisis. Spanish PM Rajoy’s conservative Popular Party won Sunday’s elections in Andalusia but it failed to capture the parliamentary majority necessary to govern there.” German IFO beat expectations but did little to support EUR. Spike higher was sold down aggressively. Middle Eastern names were stand out sellers. Euro nudged higher after Bernanke comments. Middle Eastern names were heavy buyers. Bias up now. Next major resistance level 1.3400(option barrier). 1.3300 is strong support level.EUR/JPY should remain well bid too so that may support the move higher. EUR/USD 4Hr Chart Click on Image to Enlarge
GBP/USD Today’s push above the former resistance above 1.5900 puts GBP/USD in good position to test the 1.6000(as I noted on previous post). 1.5925-15 and 1.5900 are acting as strong support levels. Major resistance at 1.6000. 4HR Chart: Click on image to Enlarge
AUD/USD Is nearing channel top and technical resistance level at 1.0555. If it breaks then 1.0598-1.0618 is next zone to watch.1.0495-85 is first strong support zone.4HR Chart: Click on image to Enlarge
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